Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment
Risk analysis is recognised as a valuable tool in the management of microbial food safety issues related to known or emergent etiological agents. Risk analysis consists of three elements: risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. Risk assessment is the scientific part of the process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified and the risk posed by the agent is calculated. Apart from an end point calculation of risk, the risk model developed can be of value in determining the parts of the chain which contribute most to risk; in identifying the critical control points for HACCP (Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point) systems or to investigate the effect of changes in practices or procedures throughout the chain on the risk posed. Risk management is an evaluation on the acceptability of the risk posed and the implementation of measures to reduce this risk if necessary. Risk communication involves transparent communication between the risk assessors (scientists) and the risk managers (regulators, industry, government agencies etc.).
The four elements of Quantitative Risk assessment are:
- Hazard identification -identifies particular hazards in a product or process
- Exposure assessment- estimates the intake of the hazard by the consumer and frequently generates quantitative data on the prevalence/number of the parasite at various points along the chain from raw to finished product (ie farm to fork approach)
- Hazard characterisation - relates exposure to the hazard with a public health effect (illness/ death) frequently by assessing the dose-response relationship
- Risk characterisation - calculates the risk from the exposure (intake) and dose-response estimate (effect).
Quantitative Risk Assessment of Pathogens in Beef
E.coli 0157:H7 in beef burgers in the Republic of Ireland
A quantitative microbiological risk assessment of E.coli 0157:H7 in beef burgers in the Republic of Ireland has been completed. To download the report please click here. (1.5 MB PDF format)
This model is currently being extended to assess the risk posed by other VTEC (E.coli 026, 0111, 0145, 0103).
In addition, as part of the ProSafeBeef project models are being developed for other pathogens, Salmonella, Campylobacter, and Listeria monocytogenes in beef and beef products. Click here to visit the ProSafeBeef website.
Risk Assessment and Characterisation of Salmonella spp. and Yersinia enterocolitica along the Pork Chain
Salmonella and Yersinia enterocolita are two bacterial pathogens of human clinical importance associated with pigs and pork products. In collaboration with UCD we are developing a risk assessment model for Salmonella along the pork chain. Equivalent models for Y. enterocolitica will also be developed. The microbiological research will include a measure of the incidence of these bacteria on farms and in pork processing plants, serotyping / speciation, antibiotic resistance and plasmid profiling as well as molecular characterisation (PFGE).
