Rural Ireland 2025
Foresight Perspectives

If Current Trends Continue…

A scenario assuming no major changes in current trends, other than those already signalled, will result in serious failures to achieve the declared policy goals for rural Ireland. Although the aggregate headline indicators in the national economy are positive, they mask some underlying weaknesses that adversely affect prospects for the rural economy. On current trends the following outcomes are likely by 2025.

• There will not be an acceptable regional balance in Ireland’s economy; population, commercial agriculture and modern enterprises will be even more concentrated in the east and south than at present.
• Rural areas, especially in the northwest and north midlands, will lag behind in respect of communications and other infrastructure, particularly as EU funds will not be available for their further development.
• There will be dramatic reductions in farmer numbers, lower agricultural prices, and widespread decline in commercial farming. Lower volumes of farm output will threaten the viability of agri-food processing enterprises
• Forested land area will almost double; however, the value of forestry and wood product output will not increase to the same extent.
• The marine sector will not have reached its inherent potential, especially in terms of value-added in the seafood and renewable energy sectors.
• Provision of public goods from natural resources, including carbon sequestration by forests, will not be achieved in the absence of adequate attention to the valuation of these public goods and arrangements to pay their potential suppliers.
• The rural landscape with Ireland’s rich natural and cultural environment will be under continued threat.
• Developments in the broader rural economy will not offset losses and other weaknesses in the natural resource sectors. Growth in exports from the dominant indigenous enterprises will remain relatively low. Moreover, it is likely that a large part of manufacturing output from foreign owned enterprises will move to lower cost economies. In these circumstances, employment in building and construction will not continue at current high levels.
• New types of employment will not benefit the many rural communities outside of commuting catchment zones.

What Future Could Be Achieved?

Rural Ireland in 2025 could be closer to the situation envisaged in the goals for national policies. However, this requires taking action now on the following:

• The National Spatial Strategy, implemented in conjunction with successive regionally focused national plans, would result in a more balanced distribution of population and economic activity throughout the country.
• Rapid communications and supporting infrastructure would provide greater accessibility throughout all parts of the country.
• The rural economy could sustain more competitive enterprises through the development of additional entrepreneurial and management skills, as well as further innovation in products, business organisation and marketing.
• The agri-food industry could have more developed business, technological and innovative capacities, with a widely differentiated product portfolio selling in international markets.
• Forestry and the ocean economy could be sizeable suppliers to the energy sector and provide valued public goods.
• Maintenance of an attractive rural environment could be secured by compliance with EU Directives and payment for public goods, as well as better management systems nationally.
• A knowledge-based bio-economy could emerge built on the comparative advantage of Ireland’s natural resources.
• ‘Old economy’ enterprises could be upgraded, and manufacturing small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) could increase their contribution to the rural economy.
• Tourism could be a vibrant sector of the rural economy, providing knowledge-based environmental goods and services, focused on Ireland’s unique landscapes and culture.
• Clusters of internationally oriented companies could exploit the full potential of natural resources in food, the marine, forestry and tourism.

Realising Attainable National Policy Goals

Overall changes required to achieve the above perspective and the ultimate goals of rural policies are summarised below.

• Greater commitment to rural and regional development throughout government.
• Construct an effective institutional framework to ensure that policies respond to the defined needs of the rural economy and rural communities.
• Change in the prevailing mode of policy-making, public administration and policy delivery such as that
  • The rhetoric of stated policy is followed through with clear operational programmes, especially in relation to the White Paper on Rural Development and the National Spatial Strategy;
  • Public programmes are initiated proactively and are not dependent on Directives from Brussels;
  • Consultation with stakeholders and the completion of value for money audits prior to commitment of major initiatives.
• Repositioning of the Irish rural economy in the evolving global economy so that competitiveness, productivity growth, and transition to a services-based knowledge economy are reconciled with environmental sustainability and rural social viability.
• Acceptance of the fact that while economic competitiveness is a central requirement, much of rural development provides public goods and their value should be added to relevant receipts from commercial markets in reaching decisions.
• Recognition that rural development requires a strong focus on multi-sectoral development, tailored to the circumstances of different regions and sub-regions and goes beyond agriculture and agricultural policy.
• Emphasis on applying knowledge and research based information in decision-making and innovation at all levels.
• Stronger operational links between rural and coastal development strategies.

What Are The Most Essential Enabling Measures?

For the proper implementation of the range of strategic initiatives advocated in this Foresight report, three overarching measures are necessary:

1. Establishment of a Rural Policy Implementation Group to facilitate efficient resource use in developing a competitive and sustainable rural economy.
2. Development of Regional Innovation and Research Systems to support the development of a knowledge based rural economy.
3. Provision of Education and Training Programmes to raise the human resource capabilities of rural businesses, and of rural populations generally.

Without these measures the rural economy will not attain the prospects outlined above, and further more the declared goals of rural policy will not be achieved.